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Blantika: Multidisciplinary Journal Volume 2 Number 9, Juni, 2024 p- ISSN 2987-758X e-ISSN 2985-4199 |
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THE INFLUENCE OF ROE, EPS, DER, CURRENT RATIO, AND CLAIM
EXPENSE RISK ON SHARE PRICES WITH PREMIUM GROWTH Marco
Gregorius, Nicholas Januardo Halim, Verina Mikroskil University, Indonesia marco@gmail.com |
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ABSTRACT This research aims to
determine the effect of profitability (ROE and EPS), debt-to-equity ratio,
current ratio, and claims expense risk on share prices with premium
growth. The data used was obtained
from the annual financial reports of insurance companies listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the period 2020-2022. This research used
purposive sampling to collect samples. The analysis techniques used were the
normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, autocollinearity test, t-statistical test, and MRA test
(pure moderation). The total sample in
the research was 53 companies. The
results of this research prove that ROE DER, current ratio, and claim expense
risk dont have any influence on share prices. EPS has a positive influence on share
prices, and premium growth cannot moderate ROE, CR, EPS and claim expense
risk variable and share prices. Keywords:
Insurance, ROE, DER, EPS, Current Ratio |
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This
work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike
4.0 International |
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INTRODUCTION
The year 2020 will be a long year for the entire world, especially for
industry in any sector, because of the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic,
which has had a drastic impact on the country's economic downturn, so companies
have to do something to continue their business in the midst of the economic
turmoil. One sector affected by Covid-19 is the insurance industry. This
industry is a financial services company that collects public funds through the
collection of insurance premiums to provide protection to a person or customer
of the insurance service against the possibility of loss due to an uncertain
event in the future.
Just like other companies, insurance companies are also set up to make
maximum profits for the survival of their business. The insurance industry in
Indonesia has grown rapidly over the last five years. Insurance statistics from
the Financial Services Authority (OJK) show that asset growth has continued to
rise since 2014 from Rs. 807.7 trillion to Rs. 1.325,7 trillion in December
2019. AAJI data show that the total new premiums revenue through bancassurance
channels increased from Rs. 63.45 trillion in Q4 2019 to Rs. 70.89 trillion in
Q4. 2020. However, in the first trimester of 2020, the insurance industry faces
a Covid-19 pandemic that obviously impacts on general income. The agency's new
premium revenue recorded Rs. 37,04 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and
Rs. The decrease also affected traditional products as well as link units. The
percentage of downsizing link units was recorded is lower than traditional
products, where the total new premium income of link units worth Rs. 70,27
trillion in Q4 2019 to Rs. 67.28 trillion in Q4 2020. Although the appearance
of a global Covid-19 pandemic against the Indonesian insurance world has not
yet been seen, we are presented with good news, namely a recovery in premium
sales in June after experiencing a decline in the previous months due to the
pandemical pressure.
The results of Lifepal.co.ids research
comparing OJKs insurance statistics report showed that the recovery of gross
life insurance premiums in June 2020 exceeded the value of income in June 2019.
Although it experienced a fairly drastic decline in early 2020, the income of
life insurance premiums in June 2019 was the highest compared to January to
June both in 2019 and 2020. Increased investment in the wake of the pandemic
gives investors hope to keep investing in the insurance industry. Investing in
stock securities becomes one of the investors' choices as their investment
container. However, to invest in stock, a rational investor will invest his
money by choosing efficient stocks that can deliver maximum returns with a
certain level of risk. The stock price can be measured using several ratios,
namely the ratio of profitability, liquidity, solvency, and market ratio. To
measure profitability an insurance company can use ROE (Return On Equity). ROE
describes how a company's ability to generate profits or profit margins on
equity using existing resources; thus, the higher the percentage of ROE of a
company, the higher is the price of the stock of the company. Research on ROE
is done by some researchers to measure the rate of profitability of a firm, but
found a difference between the study conducted by Umi Rahma Dhany
(2021) and the study by (Pratiwi
& Rivandi, 2021), where the
study said that the ROE had a positive effect on the stock price, whereas the
study of Mohammad Rivandi said that ROE has no
influence on the share price.
In addition to ROE, there are several other ratios that can be used to
measure the stock price, such as EPS (Earning Per Share), DER (Debt to Equity
Ratio), CR (Current Ratio) and Claim Load Ratio. EPS is the ratio used to
measure management success in obtaining targeted profits for shareholders. The
higher the value of the EPS, the higher the profit that will be distributed to
the shareholders and will raise the price of the company's shares. This will
encourage investors to make even larger investments so that the company share
price will rise. Research on this EPS varies, with Princess Aulia's
study (2020) saying that EPS has a positive effect on stock prices, while Elina
Rahmawati's research (2023) says that EPA has a negative effect on share
prices.
The DER (Debt to Equity Ratio) is a ratio used to measure debt to
equity. This ratio is used to determine the amount of funds provided by the
lender (creditor) to the owner of the company. If this ratio is large, then
it's not beneficial to the creditor. However, the greater this ratio, the
better it is for the company. If the ratio is low, the higher the level of
funding provided by the owner and the larger the limit of security for the
borrower in case of loss or reduction in the value of the asset. Companies with
stable cash flows typically have a higher ratio to less stable money ratio.
Some studies such as the study conducted by Umi Rahma Dhany
(2021) say that the DER has a negative impact on the stock price, while other
studies carried out by Seger Priantono (2023) say
that DER has no effect on the share price.
CR (current ratio) is a ratio used to measure the ability of a company
to pay short-term liabilities and cover operational needs. The higher the CR
rate indicates the better the company's performance so that it can raise the
share price of the company. Research on CR also varies, with a study conducted
by Leny Marlina (2023) saying that CR has a positive effect on the stock price,
while other research carried out by (Atmaja,
Nurfarisyi, & Nuraisiah, 2023) says that CR negatively affects the
share price.
The claim expense ratio is closely linked to the solvency ratio of the
insurance company, where increasing the company's ability to pay claims will
increase public interest in purchasing insurance company policies so that the
income of the company also increases. With this, the solvability ratio also
rises. When the firm's solvencies ratio increases, then investors have
confidence that the company is able to pay the expense of claims that arise in
the period, so this triggers an interest of investors to invest which will
later affect the price of the corporate stock. Research on the expense ratio of
claims varies, with a study conducted by Ellina Rahmawati (2023) stating that
the expense ratio has a positive influence on the stock price, while a study
carried out by (Khasanah,
Murni, & Tulung, 2022) says that the load ratio affects
the price of stocks negatively.
Some studies of the above measurement ratios have shown that one
variable influences the other differently. In this research, a variable is
added, namely the growth ratio of the premium, which will act as moderation. To
carry out observations, the authors obtained data related to profitability,
solvency, liquidity, and risk ratio of the claim expense.
The impact of ROE on share price
with premium growth as moderation
To invest in stock securities, a rational investor would invest his
money by choosing efficient stocks, which can give maximum return with a
certain level of risk or a certain return with minimal risk. The behavior
pattern of the stock price determines the return pattern received from the
stock (Dhany,
Yusuf, & Hendra, 2021). Increased company ROE suggests
that if the company becomes more effective in managing shareholder equity,
investors will be interested in the ROE that the company earns. For
shareholders, the higher this ratio, the better it will be because it will give
a greater rate of return to shareholder. This is in line with research that
states that Return on Asset (ROE) has a positive effect on stock prices. (Umi
Rahma Dhany, Muhammad Rizki
Yusuf, Joni Hendra, 2021). The increase in premiums has an impact on the rate
of return on equity because the growth of premiums can drive a significant rise
in the value of income alongside an increase in the amount of expense that is
not too significant.
The impact of EPS on share price
with premium growth as moderation
Earning per share is one of the most
frequently used and important ratios in measuring company growth. The greater
the company's ability to increase the profitability of each share sheet, the
greater is the profit it generates. The effect of earning per share on the
share price can be seen from changes in net profit and the amount of ordinary
shares in circulation. Investors are expected to pay attention to the earning
value per share because the variable affects the price of the stock (Putri Aulia Febrianti, Nurhayati,
2019). The higher the EPS, the higher the profit that will be distributed to
the shareholders and will raise the company's share price. This will make
investors to make even larger investments so that the company's stock price will
rise (Febrianti
& Nurhayati, 2019).
The growth of premiums affects the income of each share in the insurance
company, which provides an indicator that the company is able to optimize the
stock circulation, which attracts investors to invest capital or buy shares
from insurance companies.
The impact of DER on the share price
with premium growth as moderation
The Debt to Equity Ratio is used to evaluate the financial leverage of a
company and is calculated by dividing the total liability of the company by the
equity of its shareholders. The DER value indicates that the company has a low
risk so long as it tends to be seen by investors and results in the demand for
stocks rising and triggering a rise in the price of stocks (Umi Rahma Dhany, Muhammad Rizky Yusuf, Joni Hendra) (2021).
In this case, the growth of premiums is able to measure the Debt to
Equity Ratio in the operational financing of companies with debt that can be
seen from the increased share demand rate of the rising and decreasing earnings
of the insurance premiums carried out by the company.
The impact of CR on the share price
with premium growth as moderation
Current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to
pay short-term or due-off obligations in a year. This ratio provides
information to investors and analyzes how a company can maximize liquid assets
in the balance sheet to meet its debt and other debts. Current ratio has a
positive effect on stock prices (Leny Marlina, Hamid Bone, Wirasmi
Wardhani (2023). These variables have an indirect
effect on the stock price. If the yield ratio is high, then the company can pay
its short-term obligations and can carry out day-to-day operations. Information
about financial statements on current ratio is very important for external
parties especially investors (Leny Marlina, Hamid Bone, Wirasmi
Wardhani (2023). With the growth of premiums, the
current ratio in the company is expected to increase and be more stable in the
short-term debt repayment.
The impact of claim expense risk on
the Share Price with Premium Growth as Moderation
The claim expense ratio explains the experience of the claim and the
quality of the coverage effort. This ratio has a maximum limit of 100%. The
price of the stock is affected positively to the ratio of the expense of the
claim (Maysuri,
Gustarina,Elviani,&Barus,2023). In this case, premium growth is
able to measure the claims made by the company, then the company can find out
when the claim is insufficient, the company must perform a premium increase or
repricing to stabilize the ratio of the claim expense on the company.
RESEARCH
METHOD
Based on the formula of the problems
discussed, this study uses associative research. According to Sugiyono (2019), associative research is a formulation of
research problems that question the relationship between two or more variables.
Sugiyono (2017) also states that a research variable
is an attribute or property of a value of a person, object, or activity that
produces a certain variation that is applied by a researcher to study and then draw
conclusions. In this study, there are three types of variables used, namely
dependent variables, independent variables and moderation variables. This study
looks at the impact of ROE (X1), EPS (X2), DER (X3), CR (X4), and Claim Load
Risk Ratio (X5) on the price of the stock (Y) with the premium growth variable
(Z) as moderation.
Profitability
A profitability ratio is a ratio that measures
the ability of a company to generate profit or profit. This ratio shows the
degree of effectiveness of a management in a company by looking at the profit
obtained from sales and investment income. This study uses Return on Equity
(ROE) and Earning Per Share (EPS) to look at effectiveness against the price of
the stock.
Solvability
(DER)
The solvency ratio or leverage is a ratio that
is applied to see to what extent a company's assets are funded by debt, which
means how much the debt expense a company has compared to its assets. In other
words, this ratio is used to see the ability of a company to pay short- and
long-term liabilities when the company is liquidated. This study uses DER (Debt
to Equity Ratio) which has the following formula:
Liquidity
(CR)
Liquidity ratio is a ratio used to measure the
ability of a company to pay its debts or liabilities due. This calculation of
the ratio gives the benefit to the company owners and management to assess the
ability of the company itself. This ratio is also beneficial to creditors or
those who provide funds such as banks. In addition, distributors or suppliers
also benefit. This is because the parties need to look at the company's ability
to pay the debt in advance before lending or selling the goods that the company
pays in batches. Current Ratio is the ratio used in this study. CR has the
following formula:
Claim
Expense Risk
The claim expense ratio is a ratio that shows
the experience of a claim to the company and also measures the quality of the
insurance purchased. The claim ratio measures the number of claims in a period
and divides it by the premiums received for the same period. If the ratio is
low, then it can indicate an irrelevant product and difficulty in claiming. The
risk ratio of the claim expense has the following formula:
The sample used was taken from the population
of companies registered in the EIB from 2020-2022.
RESULTS
AND DISCUSSION
Table 1 Purposive Sampling
|
No. |
Information |
Sum of Companies |
|
1 |
Number of insurance companies listed on the
Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2020 - 2022 |
53 |
|
2 |
Number of companies studied in 2020 2022 |
53 |
Table 2 Normality Tests
|
Unstandardized Residual |
|||
|
N |
53 |
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|
Normal Parametersa,b |
Mean |
,0000000 |
|
|
Std. Deviation |
394,33578311 |
||
|
Most Extreme Differences |
Absolute |
,123 |
|
|
Positive |
,123 |
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Negative |
-,080 |
||
|
Test Statistic |
,123 |
||
|
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) |
,042c |
||
|
Monte Carlo Sig. (2-tailed) |
Sig. |
,367d |
|
|
99% Confidence Interval |
Lower Bound |
,355 |
|
|
Upper Bound |
,380 |
||
Based on the table above, it can be seen that the significance
value of 0.380 is smaller than 1. It can be concluded that the data processed
is normal.
Table 3 Multicollinearity Test
|
Coefficientsa |
|
|
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|
Model |
Unstandardized Coefficients |
Standardized Coefficients |
t |
Sig. |
Collinearity Statistics |
||||
|
B |
Std. Error |
Beta |
Tolerance |
VIF |
|||||
|
|
(Constant) |
765,917 |
191,773 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
-4,544 |
10,193 |
-,048 |
,817 |
,817 |
,817 |
1,223 |
||
|
EPS |
3,454 |
,557 |
,707 |
,722 |
,722 |
,722 |
1,386 |
||
|
DER |
-,773 |
,661 |
-,125 |
,812 |
,812 |
,812 |
1,232 |
||
|
CR |
-7,623 |
5,328 |
-,158 |
,773 |
,773 |
,773 |
1,294 |
||
|
Claim Expense Risk |
-1,094 |
1,282 |
-,087 |
,909 |
,909 |
,909 |
1,100 |
||
|
Premium Growth |
-4,515 |
2,419 |
-,194 |
-1,867 |
,068 |
,865 |
1,156 |
||
Based on the table above, after carrying out the multicollinearity
test, the tolerance value obtained was greater than 0.10 and the value was
smaller than 10 so that there was no multicollinearity in the data.
Table 4 Heteroskedasticity Test
|
Coefficients |
||||||
|
Variable |
Unstandardized
Coefficients |
Standardized
Coefficients |
t |
Sig. |
||
|
|
Std.
Error |
Beta |
||||
|
|
ROE |
-,049 |
,044 |
-,163 |
-1,124 |
,267 |
|
EPS |
,006 |
,002 |
,405 |
2,621 |
,052 |
|
|
DER |
-,002 |
,003 |
-,100 |
-,689 |
,494 |
|
|
CR |
,006 |
,023 |
,037 |
,251 |
,803 |
|
|
Claim Expense Risk |
,001 |
,005 |
,022 |
,159 |
,874 |
|
|
Premium Growth |
-,009 |
,010 |
-,118 |
-,839 |
,406 |
|
The significance value of X respectively is
0.267; 0.052; 0.494; 0.803; 0.874; 0.406. The significance value for each x is
greater than 0.05. As a result, the data has no symptoms or is free from heteroscedasticity
problems.
Table 5 Autocorrelation Test
|
Runs Test |
|
|
|
Unstandardized Residual |
|
Test Valuea |
-97,93560 |
|
Cases < Test Value |
26 |
|
Cases >= Test Value |
27 |
|
Total Cases |
53 |
|
Number of Runs |
24 |
|
Z |
-,969 |
|
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) |
,333 |
After carrying out the autocorrelation test,
the significance value obtained was 0.333. This value is greater than 0.05, so
the data does not have autocorrelation problems.
Table 6 Coefficient of Determination
|
Model Summary |
||||
|
Model |
R |
R Square |
Adjusted R Square |
Std. Error of the Estimate |
|
1 |
,768a |
,590 |
,493 |
427,763656186484870 |
The analysis results show that the adjusted R
square is 0.493. This means that the variables used in this research influence
earnings management by 49.3%. The remaining 50.7% is influenced by other
factors outside of this research.
Table 7 Partial Significance Test
|
Coefficientsa |
||||||
|
Model |
Unstandardized Coefficients |
Standardized Coefficients |
t |
Sig. |
||
|
B |
Std. Error |
Beta |
||||
|
1 |
(Constant) |
765,917 |
191,773 |
|
3,994 |
,000 |
|
ROE |
-4,544 |
10,193 |
-,048 |
-,446 |
,658 |
|
|
EPS |
3,454 |
,557 |
,707 |
6,201 |
,000 |
|
|
DER |
-,773 |
,661 |
-,125 |
-1,168 |
,249 |
|
|
CR |
-7,623 |
5,328 |
-,158 |
-1,431 |
,159 |
|
|
Claim Expense Risk |
-1,094 |
1,282 |
-,087 |
-,853 |
,398 |
|
|
Premium Growth |
-4,515 |
2,419 |
-,194 |
-1,867 |
,068 |
|
From the results of the partial significance
test above, there are the following results:
The impact of ROE on share price
with premium growth as a mediator
Because the ROE significance value is greater
than 0.05, namely 0.658, ROE has no influence on share prices (Pratiwi & Rivandi, 2021). An increasing ROE variable will reduce share prices. The results
of this research are not in line with the initial hypothesis which states that
ROE influences stock prices. The table (in moderation) shows that the premium
growth variable cannot function as a moderating variable that strengthens the
relationship between the ROE variable and stock prices. This can be seen from
the significance of ABS_XIZ which is greater than 0.05, namely 0.817. This
result contradicts the initial hypothesis which states that the premium growth
variable can moderate the ROE variable on share prices. From the regression
test, the regression coefficient value for the ROE variable is positive. This
shows that if the ROE value is increased, the share price will increase too.
The ROE is not significant because ROE has decreased due to the lack of net
profit from the company's capital and also the lack of sales profit.
The impact of EPS on share price with premium growth as a
mediator
EPS has a significant positive effect on share
prices. This is indicated by the EPS significance value which is below 0.05,
namely 0.00 with a t statistic of 6.201. The results of this research are in
accordance with research conducted by Rivandi M.,
et.al (2021) and (Febrianti & Nurhayati, 2019). They stated that the EPS variable had a significant positive
effect on the stock price variable. From the moderation table, the premium
growth variable cannot moderate the EPS variable on share prices. This can be
seen from the significance of ABS_X2Z whose value is greater than 0.05. The
significance value is 0.119. The results of this research are not in line with
the initial hypothesis which states that the premium growth variable can
moderate the EPS variable on share prices. The results of this research are in
line with the initial hypothesis which states that EPS has an effect on stock
prices. A positive EPS variable regression test value indicates that every
increase in EPS indicates that the company is able to provide a better level of
welfare to shareholders. The higher the company's EPS value, the higher it is
Also profits will be distributed to shareholders and will increase the
company's share price.
The impact of DER on the share price
with premium growth as a mediator
Based on the results of the partial Debt to
Equity Ratio t test on stock prices, the significance value is 0.249 which is
greater than 0.05. As a result, it can be concluded that DER has no effect on
share prices. The premium growth variable also cannot moderate DER with share
prices. This can be seen from the ABS_X3Z value of 0.543 which is greater than
0.05.
High DER can reduce share prices. A high DER
indicates that the company still needs loan capital to finance the company's
operations. This implies that the returns generated by the company will be
focused on returning capital loans rather than providing dividends. On the
other hand, if the DER is low it will have the impact of increasing stock
prices on the stock exchange. The results of this research are in line with
previous research conducted by Tri Sulistyani, Sonta Harianja (2022) which stated that the Debt to Equity Ratio
had no effect on share prices. However, this research contradicts previous
research conducted by Umi Rahma Dhany, Muhammad Rizki Yusuf, Joni Hendra (2021) which stated that the Debt
to Equity Ratio had a significant negative effect on stock prices.
The Impact of Current Ratio on Share
Price with Premium Growth as Mediator
CR has no effect on share prices. This can be
seen from the significant value which is 0.159. Because this value is greater
than 0.05, it can be said that CR has no effect on share prices. According to Sartono (1997), Current Ratio (CR) is a measuring tool for
liquidity capacity (short-term solvency), namely the ability to pay debts that
must immediately be met with current assets.
A high CR shows that the company is able to pay
off its short-term debt and is able to continue its business activities. This
ratio is also used to attract investors' interest in buying company shares and
has an impact on increasing share prices. However, this theory is not proven in
this research which states that CR has no effect on stock prices. This is
thought to be because investors think that a high CR value does not mean the
company has good performance because it can be caused by a high inventory value.
A high inventory value will cause the company's profits to be low and
ultimately it will not be able to provide the expected return. Therefore, CR is
not used by investors when considering making their investments. This research
is not in line with the research of (Atmaja et al., 2023), whose research shows that the current ratio (CR) has a
significant negative effect on stock prices.
The impact of the claim expense risk on
the share price with premium growth as mediators
The claims expense ratio does not affect share
prices. This can be seen from the significant value of 0.398 which is greater
than 0.05. Premium growth also cannot moderate the ratio of claims expenses and
share prices. Claims expense shows the company's ability to pay claims through
premium income. The implication of the results of this research is that
companies need to reduce the claim expense ratio so that the company's share
price can increase or improve because if the claim burden becomes greater, the share
price can decrease. The results of this research are supported by research by
Pratiwi and Azib (2019) which states that the Claim Expense Ratio has no effect
on the company's share price. However, this research contradicts the results of
research conducted by Krismawati and Nurdin (2020)
which states that the Claim Expense Ratio has an effect on the company's share
price.
CONCLUSION
The conclusions obtained from this
research are: 1) The ROE, DER, CR and claims expense variable has no effect on
stock prices. 2) The EPS variable has a significant positive effect on share
prices. 3) The premium growth variable can not
moderate ROE, DER, CR, and claims expense variable and stock prices.
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